Expectations of peak solar activity next year
2:33:10 2023-06-04 108

A new study finds that the sun may reach the peak of its current cycle of activity in 2024, one year earlier than official predictions.

But even after the Sun reaches its zenith, its wrath will continue to threaten the Earth for at least five years.

A team of scientists recently revealed improved and more accurate estimates of the strength and growth of the current solar cycle.

The team's final predictions for the current cycle expect it to peak in late 2024, one year earlier than NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration had predicted.

The team believes that the cycle of activity will reach about 185 monthly sunspots during its maximum, and therefore will be somewhat milder than the team originally expected.

The current cycle, the 25th since records began in 1755, began in 2019. According to official forecasts, it was supposed to be very mild, peaking with about 115 monthly sunspots in 2025.

The solar cycle lasts about 11 years, ebb and flow of the sun's magnetic activity, which is manifested in the number of sunspots, flares and solar eruptions.

These cycles vary in intensity, with the weakest producing less than a hundred spots per month during maximum and the strongest peaking at around 300 sunspots.

Cycle 25 was followed by a very weak Cycle 24, and NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration thought it would also be weak. However, since Cycle 25 gained strong activity in 2022, it has steadily outperformed the official forecast in line with an alternative forecast released by a team led by NASA research scientist Robert Lemon and Scott McIntosh, deputy director of the US National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), who based Even though prediction of the solar cycle is still somewhat primitive, with only 25 cycles recorded, the amount of data available for computer modeling is limited.

Therefore, in their study, Lemon and McIntosh explore alternative methods for predicting the Sun's behavior based on the star's magnetic activity.

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